NAensemble-workshop

SECOND
NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM WORKSHOP

November 16-18, 2004, NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

AGENDA

Tuesday, November 16

9:00-9:45	Workshop Welcome and Official Ribbon-Cutting Ceremony for NA Ensemble System IOC MSC, NMSM and NWS Directors (NCEP Media Room; 4th floor)

9:45-10:00	*BREAK* Move to Rm 707 for Refreshments and start of Workshop

*IOC IMPLEMENTATION AND DATA EXCHANGE: review and planning*
10:00 - 10:10	Introduction (workshop purpose) J Desmarais (MSC), Z Toth
10:10 - 10:35	IOC implementation at MSC R Hogue
10:35 - 11:00	IOC Implementation at NCEP D Michaud, R Wobus
11:00 - 11:25	Challenges for operational data delivery B Gordon (NCO)
11:25-11:50	Transition to GRIB2 format B Gordon (NCO)
11:50-12:10	Discussion of data exchange plans
12:10-13:10	*LUNCH* brought in, make selection by morning breaktime

*ENSEMBLE CONFIGURATION: recent/future changes*
13:10-13:35	At NCEP Z Toth
13:35 - 14:00	At MSC G Pellerin
14:00 - 14:30	Discuss configuration plans
14:30 - 14:45	*BREAK*

*STATISTICAL POST-PROCESSING*
14:45 - 15:00	*Objectives and background* Z Toth, moderator
15:00 - 15:30	*Bias correction methods 1: adjusting moments or pdf* B Cui
15:30 - 16:00	*Bias correction methods 2: Bayesian model averaging* R Verret (MSC)
16:00 - 16:20	Bias correction Training sample 1 J Whitaker (CDC)
16:20 - 16:30	Bias correction Training sample 2 E Olenic(CPC)
16:30 - 17:00	*Downscaling methods* P Dallavalle (MDL)
17:00 - 17:30	*Discussion of statistical post-processing plans*
18:30	*Group Dinner* arrangements TBD

Wednesday, November 17

8:00 - 8:30	Refreshments in room 707

*PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT*
8:30 - 8:45	*MSC Requirements* R Verret
8:45 - 9:00	*NCEP Requirements* Z Toth
9:00 - 9:25	Formation of a joint ensemble (member weighting, etc) R Verret (MSC)
9:25 - 9:50	*Products expressed in terms of climate anomalies* Y Zhu
9:50 -10:15	Extreme forecasts index L Wilson (MSC)
10:15 - 10:30	*BREAK*
10:30 - 11:10	Ocean Wave ensemble forecasting H Chen
11:10 - 11:30	More potential products, distribution, training
11:30 - 12:00	Discussion of products & plans
12:00-13:00	*LUNCH* brought in, make selection by morning breaktime

*VERIFICATION: review & planning*
13:00 - 13:30	Gridded forecasts Y Zhu
13:30 - 14:00	*MSC verifcation activities & plans* L Wilson
14:00 - 14:15	*Discussion of verification plans*

*INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION*
14:15 - 14:35	Potential user perspective from Mexico M Rosengaus
14:35 - 14:55	Potential new partner: UK Met Office A Dickinson & D Richardson
14:55 - 15:15	THORPEX connection D Parsons
15:15 - 15:30	*BREAK*

*NEXT NAEFS IMPLEMENTATION (Jan-Mar 06): review/discussion*
15:30 - 16:45	Data exchange (telecommunication, file format) Configuration (membership, lead time, resollution)
16:45 - 17:30	Statistical post-processing (methods, training sample) Products (list, distribution channels)
17:30 - 18:00	Final NAEFS discussion: Work schedule (timeline, contributors, work-sharing between centers)
18:00	*Dinner*

Thursday, November 18

8:00 - 8:30	Refreshments in room 209

*POTENTIAL AREAS OF FUTURE COLLABORATION*
(Review of ongoing/planned ensemble research and development work)
8:30 - 9:00	UK Met Office A Dickinson, K Mylne
9:00 - 9:30	US Navy M Sestak
9:30 - 10:00	US Air Force T Eckel
10:00 10:15	*BREAK*
10:15 - 10:45	ECMWF R Buizza
10:45 - 11:15	MSC G Brunet
11:15 - 11:45	NCEP M Wei, D Hou, M Pena
11:45 - 12:30	Collaboration Discussion, THORPEX links
12:30 - 13:30	*Lunch*

*INFORMAL WORKING SESSIONS*
13:30 - 17:00	Visitor - NCEP scientist meetings
17:00	*ADJOURN*

PARTICIPANTS

Final Workshop Particpant List

A/V FACILITIES FOR SPEAKERS

The meeting room will be equipped with one overhead projector and a computer supporting electronic presentations (Web, Microsoft, etc).

LOCAL AREA INFORMATION

A block of 10 rooms have been reserved at Colony South for NAEFS participants from 15 through 19 Nov, under code "NOAA-111504" at a rate of $129 per night. You must give the code to get the group rate. Please call the reservations desk at 301-856-4500, or 1-800-537-1147 if you wish to reserve a room; the block of rooms was reserved by Tammy Braun from EMC/NCEP if there are questions.

DC Metro Area Airports & Hotels

Maps for Metro-system Users: National Airport Metro Station

Old Town Alexandria & Metro

Old Town Alexandria Hotels

Hotel websites Old Town Alexandria Area

Colony South Hotel

DC Metro Area	Airports & Hotels
Maps for Metro-system Users:	National Airport Metro Station
	Old Town Alexandria & Metro
	Old Town Alexandria Hotels
Hotel websites	Old Town Alexandria Area
	Colony South Hotel