Notes for Global Ensemble model evaluation:

RAW ---> NCEP T00Z 10 ensemble foreacsts
CAL ---> Calibrated forecasts ( by using independent data )
OPT ---> Calibrated forecasts ( by using dependent data - optimum )
D-O ---> Die-off,
E-G ---> Error Growth,

500 hPa Height

AC Scores

RMS Error

Talagrand

Outliers

Probability

HEM

D3

D5

D8

D-O

D3

D5

D8

E-G

F/A

F/A

F/F-1

ROC

E-value

RPSS

BSS

NH

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

SH

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

500 hPa Height
	AC Scores	RMS Error	Talagrand	Outliers	Probability
HEM	D3	D5	D8	D-O	D3	D5	D8	E-G	F/A	F/A	F/F-1	ROC	E-value	RPSS	BSS
NH	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
SH	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

500 hPa Height (New method)

AC Scores

RMS Error

Talagrand

Outliers

Probability

HEM

D3

D5

D8

D-O

D3

D5

D8

E-G

Bias

F/A

F/A

F/F-1

ROC

E-value

RPSS

BSS

NH

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

SH

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Notes for Global Ensemble model evaluation:

500 hPa Height AC Scores RMS Error Talagrand Outliers Probability HEM D3 D5 D8 D-O D3 D5 D8 E-G F/A F/A F/F-1 ROC E-value RPSS BSS NH Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes SH Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

HEM

D3

D5

D8

D-O

D3

D5

D8

E-G

F/A

F/A

F/F-1

ROC

E-value

RPSS

BSS

NH

SH

500 hPa Height (New method) AC Scores RMS Error Talagrand Outliers Probability HEM D3 D5 D8 D-O D3 D5 D8 E-G Bias F/A F/A F/F-1 ROC E-value RPSS BSS NH Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes SH Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

HEM

D3

D5

D8

D-O

D3

D5

D8

E-G

Bias

F/A

F/A

F/F-1

ROC

E-value

RPSS

BSS

NH

SH