Based NCEP GEFS 1-year average (20040701-20050630)

Probabilistic verification: ROC, EV, RPSS and BSS

ENS10 is 10 ensemble members from 0000UTC

ENS20 is 10 ensemble members from 0000UTC and 10 ensemble members from previous 1200UTC

PROB	RPSS	ROC	EV	BSS
N. H.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
S. H.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
TROP.	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

1. Example of NCEP GEFS 10, 20, 30 and 40 lag ensemble member's mean (PAC)

2. Example of NCEP GEFS 10, 20, 30 and 40 lag ensemble member's mean (RMS)

3. Example of NCEP GEFS 10 ensemble's mean from different lag (PAC)

4. Example of NCEP GEFS 10 ensemble's mean from different lag (RMS)