Notes for Global Ensemble model evaluation:

Period: 11/07/2006-12/07/2006,
ENS_s ---> 14 members ensemble mean of current operation,
ENS_c ---> 20 members ensemble mean of current parallel, from large initial spread.
GFS_s ---> operational GFS forecast,
D-O ---> Die-off, E-G ---> Error Growth,
(dashed lines on err-grow maps represent ensemble spreads)
outlier ---> means ensemble Talrgrand distribution excess
(x-axis date represents forecast initial time)
1000 hPa Height AC Scores and RMS Errors (NCEP opr .vs par)
NH AC 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day 7-day 8-day die-off outlier
NH RMS 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day 7-day 8-day err-grow
SH AC 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day 7-day 8-day die-off outlier
SH RMS 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day 7-day 8-day err-grow
TR AC 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day 7-day 8-day die-off outlier
TR RMS 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day 7-day 8-day err-grow

 
500 hPa Height AC Scores and RMS Errors (NCEP opr .vs par)
NH AC 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day 7-day 8-day die-off outlier
NH RMS 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day 7-day 8-day err-grow
SH AC 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day 7-day 8-day die-off outlier
SH RMS 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day 7-day 8-day err-grow
TR AC 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day 7-day 8-day die-off outlier
TR RMS 1-day 2-day 3-day 4-day 5-day 6-day 7-day 8-day err-grow

 
500 hPa Height Probabilistic Scores (NCEP opr .vs par)
NH ROC EV RPSS BSS
SH ROC EV RPSS BSS
TROP ROC EV RPSS BSS

Click here to go to gif files directory for more maps.

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