EMC: Mesoscale Modeling Branch


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CURRENT CMAQ 12 UTC CYCLE RUN ERRORS

Archived July 2004 Statistics
Archived August/Sept. 2004 Statistics

1 hr Avg SFC OZONE ERROR PLOTS

(NE vs Experimental(3X) model runs)


Forecast hour	Mean	RMSE/STD	Bias	Correlation Coefficiants	Threshold scores
avg by FHR	*	*	*	*	daily max hit rate
06hr	Daily Avg Time series	Daily Avg Time series	Daily Avg Time Series	D. Avg Time Series	Bias ETS Hit POD FAR
12 hr	Daily Avg Time series	Daily Avg Time series	Daily Avg Time Series	D. Avg Time Series	Bias ETS Hit POD FAR
30 hr	Daily Avg Time series	DailyAvg Time Series	Daily Avg Time series	D. Avg Time Series	Bias ETS Hit POD FAR
36 hr	Daily Avg Time series	Daily Avg Time Series	Daily Avg Time Series	D. Avg Time Series	Bias ETS Hit POD FAR

8 hr Avg SFC OZONE ERROR PLOTS

(NE vs Experimental(3X) model runs)


Forecast hour	Mean	RMSE/STD	Bias	Correlation Coefficiants	Threshold scores
avg by fhr	*	*	*	*	daily max hit rate
06 hr	Daily Avg Time series	Dly Avg Time series	Dly Avg Time Series	Dly Avg Time Series	Bias ETS Hit POD FAR
12 hr	Daily Avg Time series	Dly Avg Time series	Dly Avg Time Series	Dly Avg Time Series	Bias ETS Hit POD FAR
30 hr	Daily Avg Time series	Dly Avg Time Series	Dly Avg Time Series	Dly Avg Time Series	Bias ETS Hit POD FAR
36 hr	Daily Avg Time series	Dly Avg Time Series	Dly Avg Time Series	Dly Avg Time Series	Bias ETS Hit POD FAR

SFC OZONE ERROR PLOTS by SUB-REGION

(NE vs Experimental(3X) model runs)

:w


Avg by Forecast Hr	Mean	RMSE/STD	Bias	Correlation Coefficiants
NE & SE Coast (NEC,SEC)	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr
MidWest, L. Miss Valley	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr
Appalachians(APL), E. Canada(ECA)	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr
S Plains (SPL), Gulf of Mex 3X Only	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr
All Regions: 1X only	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr
All Regions: 3X only	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr	1hr 8hr

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