VERIFICATION STATISTICS FROM NGM PARALLEL TEST

Three types of charts are shown below:

TABLE 1: Statistics for the parallel test from 12Z 16 December 1999 - 12Z 22 February 2000


BIAS ERROR
(CONUS)
RMS ERROR
(CONUS)
BIAS ERROR
(ALASKA)
RMS ERROR
(ALASKA)
Height (1000-100 mb) X X X X
Temperature (1000-100 mb) X X X X
Relative Humidity (1000-300 mb) X X X X
Vector Wind(1000-100 mb) - X - X
12H Forecast Sfc Temp X X - -
24H Forecast Sfc Temp X X - -
48H Forecast Sfc Temp X X - -

TABLE 2: Mean Bias/RMS surface temperature errors (deg C) for the parallel test from 12Z 16 December 1999 - 12Z 22 February 2000

Forecast Hour Operational NGM-RMS
(CONUS)
Parallel NGM-RMS
(CONUS)
Operational NGM-bias
(CONUS)
Parallel NGM-bias
(CONUS)
12 4.80 4.54 3.03 2.74
24 5.24 5.09 3.39 3.26
48 5.48 5.53 3.41 3.47

TABLE 3: Statistics for warm season retrospective from 00Z 2 July 1999 - 12Z 2 August 1999


BIAS ERROR
(CONUS)
RMS ERROR
(CONUS)
BIAS ERROR
(ALASKA)
RMS ERROR
(ALASKA)
Height (1000-100 mb) X X X X
Temperature (1000-100 mb) X X X X
Relative Humidity (1000-300 mb) X X X X
Vector Wind (1000-100 mb) - X - X
12H Forecast Sfc Temp X X - -
24H Forecast Sfc Temp X X - -
48H Forecast Sfc Temp X X - -

TABLE 4: Mean Bias/RMS surface temperature errors (deg C) for warm-season retrospective run from 00Z 2 July 1999 - 12Z 2 August 1999

Forecast Hour Operational NGM-RMS
(CONUS)
Parallel NGM-RMS
(CONUS)
Operational NGM-bias
(CONUS)
Parallel NGM-bias
(CONUS)
12 5.34 5.26 3.95 3.87
24 5.80 6.05 4.35 4.70
48 5.83 6.10 4.25 4.61

TABLE 5: Statistics for 24-h accumulated precipitation


BIAS SCORE
(DEC 99-FEB 00)
EQUITABLE THREAT SCORE
(DEC 99-FEB 00)
BIAS SCORE
(JULY 99)
EQUITABLE THREAT SCORE
(JULY 99)
24-H Forecast X X X X
36-H Forecast X X X X
48-H Forecast X X X X
All Forecasts X X X X
All Forecasts(Eastern US) X X X X
All Forecasts(Western US) X X X X

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